農暦閏九月二十一日。曇。読売が衆院選「来月14日」と確定。さすが自民党紙（笑）。この選挙では反自民票を共産党
にまとめて反自民の意思表示するしか策はない。早晩に尖沙咀。バーＴに麦酒一杯の早酒ののちバーＷで赤葡萄酒。佐敦の徳興火鍋にＳ氏と鍋をつゝきまだ二更にてバーＷに戻りBloody Mary一杯いたゞきゝ帰宅。
▼総選挙らしい。争点は何なのか。安倍政権になって痛感したのは議論が働かないことだ。世相もそう動いた。「男女平等は妄想」←衆院での次世代の党•杉田水脈議員の発言、も議論にならなかった。敵か見方か。すべてはそれだけ。改革の論戦以前に、社会への疑問や抵抗感が麻痺しつつある。この風潮を止められるか。争点は私たちの内にも見える。……都新聞「こち特」の牧ちゃんによるデスクメモより。
▼英エコノミスト誌（11 Nov）で“Big bazookas”（こちら）は日銀の政策を支持した上で首相の指導力を問ふ。晋三が消費税10％への引き上げ躊躇するなか（長い引用になるが）一読に値す。
The BoJ was right to move boldly. The past two decades have been a story of too little, too late, for Japan. But not everybody is comfortable with the move. Four of the bank’s board members voted against it―which was also a shock.
Critics worry about the impact of an already weak yen weakening further. Since the earthquake and tsunami of March 2011, Japan has been virtually without nuclear power. It therefore relies on imports to satisfy almost all its energy needs. At a time when real wages are already falling, the weaker yen has pushed up household energy costs by over a quarter. Big firms that export are benefiting, but the small and midsized businesses that employ most of Japan’s workers are being squeezed. A survey suggests four-fifths of such firms do not want the yen above \109 to the dollar. It is now \114.
But energy prices are falling, offsetting the effects of a weaker currency―one reason why Mr Kuroda felt able to move. A bigger concern is that Mr Abe has been relying on monetary policy to wow markets and foreign investors while failing to push ahead with the politically difficult parts of his economic programme. These include structural reforms to boost sluggish long-term growth and a credible plan to stabilise Japan’s parlous finances (the government’s deficit and public debt stand at 6% and 240% of GDP respectively).（略）
With the deficit running at 8%, the government will need to raise taxes to avoid losing still more fiscal credibility. By the end of this year, Mr Abe must decide whether to go ahead with an increase in consumption tax from 8% to 10%, starting next October. Eventually, the tax probably needs to go up to 20%.
Mr Kuroda’s stimulus was intended to make it easier for the prime minister both to carry out structural reforms and also to raise the consumption tax. Now Mr Abe must forge ahead with the reforms. On the tax, however, he should tread cautiously. Private consumption is too weak for the economy to bear a tax rise right now. So Mr Abe should instead announce legislation for the tax to go up by one percentage point a year, for 12 years. The increases should start when the economy can bear it. That will not be next year.
Boldness in monetary expansion; boldness in structural reform; caution in fiscal contraction. It will be a delicate operation: but Japan’s situation is indeed very delicate.
もう一つアベノミクスに関する“Riding to the rescue”（こちら）。日本の経済改革を支持する同誌はこれだけ安定政権が経済政策においてその力を行使せず総選挙といつた小手先のゲームに走ることにも苦言してゐる。
The problem with an increase in the consumption tax is that it hits the very people who need to spend more. In similar fashion to America or Europe, quantitative easing has benefited big businesses and wealthy individuals owning shares or property in Tokyo and a few other big cities. But ordinary Japanese, notably in the regions that are emptying of people, feel left behind. Support for Abenomics is slipping as more people feel there is little in it for them. As well as the rise in the consumption tax, households have had to contend with higher prices from a weaker yen, notably higher energy and fuel costs. At least these have fallen in recent weeks as global demand for oil has weakened. It is one reason Mr Kuroda felt able to act by loosening policy further. The yen weakened immediately. The news that the government pension fund will double its holdings of equities, including foreign ones, has also helped drive down the yen even as it has boosted stockmarkets.（略）
As barons in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party last month sought the means to silence the opposition on the subject of political-funding scandals, speculation grew that Mr Abe might call a snap election by the end of this year, discomfiting an opposition in general disarray. Similar rumours swirled following the central bank’s action. Yet with a majority in both houses of the Diet guaranteed until 2016, Mr Abe already has the muscle to make real reforms. He just needs to use it.
